For years, Republican candidates have presented themselves as “pro-business” by conforming to a platform of tax cuts and deregulation. But 18 months after the start of a global pandemic, the definition of “pro-business” may change, with many voters now seeing the economy and public health as inextricably linked.

In Virginia’s gubernatorial election, where polls show a close race with just five weeks to go, former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe argues that there will be no real economic recovery as long as the pandemic continues. will not be contained – and that the mask and vaccine warrants are pro-business measures.

“Businesses support vaccination,” says McAuliffe. “I want to rebuild a booming economy, and you can’t do it with COVID. Businesses aren’t going to move to a county with high COVID rates and low vaccination rates. “

His Republican opponent, former CEO and first politician Glenn Youngkin, says many business owners have told him they don’t want mandates imposed on them and their employees. He thinks politics could backfire and hurt economic growth.

“If companies want to act, then that’s the decision of the company,” says Youngkin. “Mandates are not the answer.

Woodbridge, Virginia.

At Todos Supermarket, one of Virginia’s largest Hispanic grocery stores, Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is pleading for his pro-business agenda.

Working at the cash desk, he hands his change to a woman. “I hope you know how to count money, unlike the current governor,” she says.

The former CEO explains his plan to eliminate the tax on groceries, suspend the tax on gasoline and invest in education – which looks good to the owner of Todos, Carlos Castro.

But Mr. Castro says he has a more pressing concern right now: curbing COVID-19.

The pandemic-induced equipment, supply and labor shortages have delayed the opening of its second Todos store. The increase in unemployment benefits, he says, has made it difficult to retain staff. And it has been a constant battle to encourage customers to wear masks and employees to get vaccinated.

For years, GOP candidates like Mr. Youngkin have presented themselves as “pro-business” by embracing a platform of tax cuts and deregulation. But 18 months after the start of a global pandemic, the definition of “pro-business” may change, with many voters now seeing the economy and public health as inextricably linked. Democratic candidates such as former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe – who is locked in a close race with Mr Youngkin – are leaning into the position, arguing that the mask and vaccine warrants are, in fact, stimulus measures business, and that there will be no real economic recovery until the pandemic is contained.

With early voting already underway in Virginia and just five weeks before Election Day, the question stands as a critical test of how pandemic politics might play out in the country’s midterm elections. next year.

“The vaccine’s mandate is really controversial with a lot of Republican voters,” GOP strategist Alex Conant said. “But some business owners welcome the mandates. This allows their employees to be angry with Biden, not them.

This is certainly the case with Mr. Castro, who says he is more than happy that the federal government is intervening.

“It’s a blessing to us because we don’t have to deal with it,” says Castro. “Now I don’t have to fight with anyone anymore.”

A clear partisan split

Under new requirements announced earlier this month by President Joe Biden, employers like Mr. Castro with 100 or more employees are soon to have a fully vaccinated workforce or provide weekly testing. Federal workers must be vaccinated or risk losing their jobs. In total, the mandates will apply to two-thirds of American workers.

In his speech, President Biden noted that many large companies – such as Fox News – have already implemented similar restrictions themselves.

“If you look at the polls, companies support immunization,” says McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee who served as governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018. “I want to rebuild a booming economy, and you can’t not do it with COVID. Businesses are not going to move to a county with high COVID rates and low vaccination rates. “

Democrats believe that message – that a healthy economy first means controlling the pandemic – is a winning one. In his recall election victory speech two weeks ago, California Governor Gavin Newsom said the result was a vote for vaccines and “the end of this pandemic.”

“California voters didn’t like Newsom had this fancy dinner [during lockdown], but they thought it was better to have this set of pandemic policies than what you get with a Republican, ”said Bill Kristol, a conservative commentator and prominent Trump critic, who backed Mr. McAuliffe in the race for governor of Virginia. “If you look at the world over the past 200 years, good public health is good for the economy. “

According to a recent Morning Consult poll, 58% of Americans support the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates. But there is a big partisan divide, with 80% of Democrats but only a third of Republicans in favor.

Former President Donald Trump severely berated vaccine requirements, as have Republican governors across the country. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has told cities and counties in his state that they would be fined $ 5,000 per employee if they demanded that public workers be vaccinated; Texas Governor Greg Abbott had previously issued a decree banning vaccine requirements. The governor of Mississippi has called Mr. Biden’s tenure a form of “tyranny” and the governor of South Carolina has vowed to fight Mr. Biden to the “gates of hell.” Republican attorneys general in 24 states have threatened legal action.

Youngkin, who has pointed out that he is a strong supporter of immunization, says many business owners have told him they don’t want mandates imposed on them and their employees.

“The vaccine is the best way for people to protect their health, but it’s an individual decision. If businesses want to act, then that’s the business decision, ”says Youngkin. “Mandates are not the answer.

The first politician walks a particularly delicate line in Virginia, a former swing state that has turned noticeably bluer over the past decade. Ranked “Best State for Doing Business” by CNBC for the past two years in a row, Virginia will likely have its gubernatorial election decided by turnout in the increasingly Democratic suburbs outside of Washington, where many many voters support tougher measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

“Republicans are fed up with the pandemic too,” said GOP strategist Whit Ayres. “A reflective message of less regulation may not be effective when it comes to dealing with the pandemic.”

“We have to get the economy moving”

But general concerns about the economy – even if stemming from the effects of the pandemic – could still benefit Mr Youngkin. In a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll, registered voters in Virginia ranked the economy as the top voting problem in the November election, followed by the coronavirus. While voters trusted Mr McAuliffe to better handle the pandemic from 44% to 35%, Mr Youngkin had a one percentage point advantage over running the economy.

“For business owners there is much more to do [their vote] that “Do you support immunization mandates?” “- and these are the reasons they have traditionally supported Republicans,” said Mr. Conant, the GOP strategist.

Mr. Castro, for his part, says he has not decided who he will vote for. He supported Mr. McAuliffe in 2014, and thought he was a good governor. But he also says he believes in “political diversity” and wants to support more moderate Republicans, who could steer the party center-wise on issues like immigration. As an employer, he fears pro-union Democrats in Congress will weaken or even overturn Virginia’s “right to work” law.

Still, he says his vote will likely depend on who ends the pandemic fastest – and at the moment, he thinks it’s Mr McAuliffe.

“We have to get people back to work,” says Castro. “We have to get the economy moving. “