A round of applause in Congress and a rise in the polls: US President Joe Biden has regained political momentum thanks to his handling of the war in Ukraine, but experts warn that this may not last.

Last week, the 79-year-old president received a long standing ovation from congressional Democrats and Republicans when he underscored America’s unwavering support for Ukraine during his State of the Union address. .

The moment of strong bipartisanship was remarkable for a country where political divisions run deep, especially ahead of the hotly contested midterm elections later this year.

With a low number of polls and his reform plans blocked in Congress, can the American president translate this moment more widely and benefit from a “rally effect around the flag”?

The concept, put forward by political scientist John Mueller in 1970, suggests that during international crises, Americans tend to have a more favorable view of their commander-in-chief.

Apparent gains on the Covid-19 front certainly also play a role, even if overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.

“We’re seeing right now … pretty strong support among the public and even among Republicans for the actions he’s taken,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University.

These actions, including broad sanctions against Russia and financial and military support for Ukraine, even “had a modest ripple effect in terms of overall approval ratings,” Abramowitz added.

Presidential “reset”

Biden’s job approval now sits at 42.7%, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight — still low, but significantly higher than the 40% he had on Feb. 27.

As America’s oldest president – he was 78 when he took office – Biden is often attacked by Republicans for his lack of energy and lack of authority.

The Ukraine crisis may therefore help Biden “change his image as a leader with the general public”, as well as “regain some of the ground he gave up with the withdrawal from Afghanistan which was… perceived as pretty disastrous,” Abramowitz said.

The researcher attributes Biden’s rise in popularity largely to improving opinions within his own party, even though former President Donald Trump has embarrassed some of his Republican colleagues with comments praising the Russian president’s intelligence Vladimir Poutine.

For Capri Cafaro, a former Democratic lawmaker in the Ohio State Senate and current professor at American University, Biden is trying to “reset” his presidency.

She points out that during his State of the Union address, Biden devoted a significant amount of time to Ukraine, but he also highlighted key issues for people from all political backgrounds: immigration and support. from the police to conservatives, and abortion rights and welfare to progressives.

Exit the big transformation plans, make way for concrete projects: lowering the price of drugs, rebuilding bridges, opening factories.

Cafaro thinks Biden’s change is an attempt to “reframe” himself as “someone more pragmatic or moderate,” after months of being portrayed as “kind of a puppet of this progressive coalition that… got elected”. “

“No way out situation”

But Cafaro also says Biden is “in a no-win situation no matter what.”

“You’re always at risk if you’re trying to, you know, please everyone. No one really believes you have a conviction,” she said.

The White House will also have to deal with the collateral damage of Russian sanctions on the US economy which has already seen record levels of inflation in recent months.

Before Biden unveiled a Russian oil embargo on Tuesday, 71% of Americans said they would support action against Russia even if it raised gas prices, according to a Quinnipiac University survey.

The crisis also gave the president a clear culprit to blame for rising gas prices, which had risen steadily before the Russian invasion.

On Tuesday, Biden told a reporter who asked him what he could do to lower prices: “There’s not much I can do right now…Russia is responsible.”

Nonetheless, Republicans still intend to make high prices a key point in their election campaigns.

“Today it’s ‘Russia’s fault’. Before that it was OPEC’s fault. Before that it was ’cause of the virus’,” tweeted Kevin McCarthy, the main Republican in the House of Representatives.

“Serious question: how bad do gas prices have to be before he accepts some blame?”